EABER/SABER Newsletter June 2015

June, 2015
China seems to have abandoned its cautious approach to relations with Pakistan and has adopted a policy of active and deep engagement. This new approach will most likely increase Beijing’s influence in Islamabad.

EABER/SABER Newsletter June 2015

June, 2015
China seems to have abandoned its cautious approach to relations with Pakistan and has adopted a policy of active and deep engagement. This new approach will most likely increase Beijing’s influence in Islamabad.

Economic reform in Jokowi’s Indonesia

May, 2015
Creina Day and Yose R Damuri
The first 100 days of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and his government were distinguished by historic reforms to fuel subsidies, social assistance to the poor, streamlined investment licensing and virtually no new restrictive regulations on foreign trade. Fuel subsidy reform has given the government fiscal space for infrastructure development. But if Indonesia is to attract greater foreign investment, there is still scope to promote openness and regional integration in what is a critical year for Indonesia’s involvement in international trade agreements.

Economic reform in Jokowi’s Indonesia

May, 2015
Creina Day and Yose R Damuri
The first 100 days of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and his government were distinguished by historic reforms to fuel subsidies, social assistance to the poor, streamlined investment licensing and virtually no new restrictive regulations on foreign trade. Fuel subsidy reform has given the government fiscal space for infrastructure development. But if Indonesia is to attract greater foreign investment, there is still scope to promote openness and regional integration in what is a critical year for Indonesia’s involvement in international trade agreements.

EABER Newsletter April 2015

April, 2015
Atsushi Seikei
The ageing of Japan’s population is globally unprecedented both in its level and its speed. The proportion of people aged 65 years old and over is now more than one-quarter of the total population of Japan — proportionally, the largest in the world. This will grow to one-third of the total population in 2035. It took only 24 years — from 1970 to 1994 — for the proportion of Japanese people aged over 65 to increase from 7 per cent to 14 per cent. In European countries it took between 50 and 100 years, and in some cases even longer. Japan’s population has aged twice as fast as Germany’s and more than four times faster than France’s.

EABER Newsletter April 2015

April, 2015
Atsushi Seikei
The ageing of Japan’s population is globally unprecedented both in its level and its speed. The proportion of people aged 65 years old and over is now more than one-quarter of the total population of Japan — proportionally, the largest in the world. This will grow to one-third of the total population in 2035. It took only 24 years — from 1970 to 1994 — for the proportion of Japanese people aged over 65 to increase from 7 per cent to 14 per cent. In European countries it took between 50 and 100 years, and in some cases even longer. Japan’s population has aged twice as fast as Germany’s and more than four times faster than France’s.

EABER/SABER newsletter March 2015

March, 2015
East Asian Bureau of Economic Research
Bank Indonesia (BI) surprised everyone when it eased monetary policy at its February meeting. Moving into line with global trends, it cut the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.5 per cent, even though analysts had predicted no change. While the change is surprising, it has a sound rationale but is not without risk. Recent developments are supportive of a more benign inflation picture. BI follows a forward-looking inflation targeting policy regime. Headline inflation is declining more quickly than expected with the February rate at 6.3 per cent. It seems the feed through of the November fuel price hikes were largely one-off and the strong dollar has not shaped inflation.

EABER/SABER newsletter March 2015

March, 2015
East Asian Bureau of Economic Research
Bank Indonesia (BI) surprised everyone when it eased monetary policy at its February meeting. Moving into line with global trends, it cut the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.5 per cent, even though analysts had predicted no change. While the change is surprising, it has a sound rationale but is not without risk. Recent developments are supportive of a more benign inflation picture. BI follows a forward-looking inflation targeting policy regime. Headline inflation is declining more quickly than expected with the February rate at 6.3 per cent. It seems the feed through of the November fuel price hikes were largely one-off and the strong dollar has not shaped inflation.

India ready to tackle a QE-less future

November, 2014
Ashima Goyal
India was one of the hardest hit of the emerging markets after the US Federal Reserve first hinted it would cut back its quantitative easing program in May 2013. There were three reasons for this. First, global markets over-reacted. Second, India had many macroeconomic weaknesses. Third, since its capital markets were deep and liquid enough, they offered an avenue for portfolio managers targeting reduced exposure to emerging markets. But since this blow, there have been corrections in all three areas. So the final withdrawal of US quantitative easing (QE), which the US Federal Reserve announced at the end of October, will not have a similar effect on the Indian economy.

India ready to tackle a QE-less future

November, 2014
Ashima Goyal
India was one of the hardest hit of the emerging markets after the US Federal Reserve first hinted it would cut back its quantitative easing program in May 2013. There were three reasons for this. First, global markets over-reacted. Second, India had many macroeconomic weaknesses. Third, since its capital markets were deep and liquid enough, they offered an avenue for portfolio managers targeting reduced exposure to emerging markets. But since this blow, there have been corrections in all three areas. So the final withdrawal of US quantitative easing (QE), which the US Federal Reserve announced at the end of October, will not have a similar effect on the Indian economy.