Understanding China’s unbalanced growth

October, 2013
Yukon Huang
That China’s growth is unbalanced is a fact. Consumption as a share of GDP has declined steadily over the past decade to 35 per cent, while investment as a share of GDP has risen to above 45 per cent — the lowest and the highest rates of any major economy respectively. But are these imbalances a vulnerability — as most observers believe — or a consequence of China’s economic rise, and therefore not inherently problematic?

Understanding China’s unbalanced growth

October, 2013
Yukon Huang
That China’s growth is unbalanced is a fact. Consumption as a share of GDP has declined steadily over the past decade to 35 per cent, while investment as a share of GDP has risen to above 45 per cent — the lowest and the highest rates of any major economy respectively. But are these imbalances a vulnerability — as most observers believe — or a consequence of China’s economic rise, and therefore not inherently problematic?

Consumption tax fears risk stalling Abe’s ‘three arrows’

September, 2013
Takatoshi Ito
Abenomics is Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s policy package consisting of three ‘arrows’: aggressive monetary easing, flexible fiscal policy, and growth strategies. Together, they are aimed at lifting Japan’s economy from chronic deflation and stagnation to a normal economy with 2 per cent inflation and strong growth. But will they succeed?

Consumption tax fears risk stalling Abe’s ‘three arrows’

September, 2013
Takatoshi Ito
Abenomics is Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s policy package consisting of three ‘arrows’: aggressive monetary easing, flexible fiscal policy, and growth strategies. Together, they are aimed at lifting Japan’s economy from chronic deflation and stagnation to a normal economy with 2 per cent inflation and strong growth. But will they succeed?

Indonesia: bad politics meets a good economy

August, 2013
Maria Monica Wihardja
Indonesia came out of the 2008–09 global financial crisis fairly unscathed; its banks only had to deleverage themselves from a small portion of debt. But now its strong position is in danger: government meddling could cause a good economy to go bad. The government should eschew populism and fix Indonesia’s structural issues, including burgeoning fiscal subsidies and inward-looking trade policies, which pose a big threat to the country’s financial and monetary stability.

Indonesia: bad politics meets a good economy

August, 2013
Maria Monica Wihardja
Indonesia came out of the 2008–09 global financial crisis fairly unscathed; its banks only had to deleverage themselves from a small portion of debt. But now its strong position is in danger: government meddling could cause a good economy to go bad. The government should eschew populism and fix Indonesia’s structural issues, including burgeoning fiscal subsidies and inward-looking trade policies, which pose a big threat to the country’s financial and monetary stability.

‘Likonomics’ policies in China

July, 2013
Yiping Huang
Since taking office in mid-March, the Li Keqiang government has taken a different policy path from that of its predecessor. Its key economic policy framework, although yet to be fully detailed, can be summarised as ‘Likonomics’, and appears to consist of three key pillars — no stimulus, deleveraging and structural reform. If so, this implies further downside risks for the economy and markets in the near term. But such policy measures are necessary now for China in order to avoid much more disruptive outcomes in the future.

‘Likonomics’ policies in China

July, 2013
Yiping Huang
Since taking office in mid-March, the Li Keqiang government has taken a different policy path from that of its predecessor. Its key economic policy framework, although yet to be fully detailed, can be summarised as ‘Likonomics’, and appears to consist of three key pillars — no stimulus, deleveraging and structural reform. If so, this implies further downside risks for the economy and markets in the near term. But such policy measures are necessary now for China in order to avoid much more disruptive outcomes in the future.

Convergent Currencies: Challenges of the Asian financial markets

June, 2013
Takatoshi Ito
It is almost certain that the 21st century is the Asian century in terms of real side of the economy—ouput, trade, consumption, and investment. What is not certain is how Asia will integrate financially and what will happen to Asian currencies, especially the Chinese renminbi (RMB) which could become the default international currency in Asia.

Convergent Currencies: Challenges of the Asian financial markets

June, 2013
Takatoshi Ito
It is almost certain that the 21st century is the Asian century in terms of real side of the economy—ouput, trade, consumption, and investment. What is not certain is how Asia will integrate financially and what will happen to Asian currencies, especially the Chinese renminbi (RMB) which could become the default international currency in Asia.